On to more important matters: the Oscars. Usually, I find myself less than enthused about the Academy's choices for nominees, throughout most categories. As a basis for comparison, I think the Golden Globes are worth about as much as a Nordic Trac is to a paraplegic.
However, this year's nominees have re-instilled my faith in Oscar's ability to see past the hype and honor the people and films that truly deserve recognition. Below, I will offer my personal picks, my predictions for the actual winners, and some dark horses in some of the evening's most important categories.
BEST DIRECTOR - (Scorsese, Innaritu, Eastwood, Frears, Greengrass)
Who Should Win: Martin Scorsese - The Departed
Marty is back and he is better than ever. I'll be the 3000th internet blogger to say this, but Scorsese's most lucrative film ever may also be one of his best ever. As with any movie he directs, his auteur's fingerprints are all over the place, shaping this intriguing narrative into a highly visceral and breathtaking experience. As usual, he is able to get incredible performances from his actors, always highlighting their talents to its upper limits. The only two who I think even come in the same stratosphere are Innaritu and Eastwood who also deliver some knockout punches, but none as powerful as Marty's. (Don't get me started on Greengrass and United 93, aka The History Channel Presents: a cheap documentary about 9-11 filmed by my friend who shakily videotapes high school soccer footage.)
Who Will Win: Martin Scorsese - The Departed
Even if he didn't deserve it, the members of the Academy would be thrilled to finally give Scorsese the recognition he has deserved for so many years. This is a win-win situation for voters and fans alike.
Who Could Win: Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima
Babel is getting some buzz, but the director's trifecta of recent films are a little too similar in vision to impress the voters enough to fork over the award to Innaritu. If Scorsese falters (which is nearly impossible), Oscar favorite Eastwood could slide in with his "no-frills" style that the voters seem to love.
BEST Actor - (DiCaprio, Gosling, O'Toole, Whitaker, Smith)
Who Should Win: Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland
Again, another popular pick, but for a good reason. I hate to pick another biopic star (more on that later), but Whitaker is an acting machine in this movie. Known as someone who can play a broad range of roles, with his sizzling portrayal of Idi Amin, he displays his incredible ability to be different characters within the same role. Whitaker is like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hide; your best friend and confidante one moment, your most frightening enemy the next. It should be noted that I think James McAvoy belonged on at least some awards' nominee list for his work opposite Whitaker, but Whitaker is definitely the star of this show.
Who Will Win: Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland
There hasn't been an award this season that Whitaker hasn't won. Oscar won't be the one to break the streak.
Who Could Win: Peter O' Toole - Venus
Though there's really no chance of Whitaker dropping this, maybe, just maybe the voters will collectively decide to reward the 75 year-old with one Oscar to represent the past seven times they failed to do so. Though I haven't seen Venus, critics have been unanimous in their praise for O' Toole's inspired (and what could be his last) performance.
BEST Actress - (Winslet, Streep, Mirren, Dench, Cruz)
Who Should Win: Kate Winslet - Little Children
With her turn as a frustrated housewife, Kate Winslet solidified her place as my new favorite female actress (it's been real, Julianne Moore). At the ludicrously young age of 31, Winslet is now a 5-time Oscar Nominee, and after losing to four young actresses she could act circles around, I can't believe she's going to lose to an octogenarian playing the most boring woman in history. As with Whitaker, Winslet's character undergoes the entire gamut of emotions, and she is at times heart-warming, heart-breaking, and at her most devious, she will make your heart race. I wish this could be Kate's year!
Who Will Win: Helen Mirren - The Queen
Just like Forest Whitaker, Mirren has yet to lose an award this year for her portrayal of England's Queen Elizabeth II. I'm sick of actors winning an Academy Award for doing the best imitation rather than for doing the very best acting. Other than Hilary Swank's win two years ago for Million Dollar Baby, the last several Best Actress winners have won for portraying real-life women in biopics. I'm tired of this trend and I want it to stop. Unfortunately, all the old-schoolers in the Academy are suckers for that stuff, especially when the lady in question is such a fan favorite among old-schoolers, like Mirren.
Who Could Win: Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal
Though its unlikely that many of the Academy viewers have even taken the time to watch this film that came and went with very little fanfare, Academy voters love Judi Dench. With her sixth nomination in nine years, (her second for Best Actress in a row), Dench is en route to either her first win for Best Actress (she won Supporting Actress for playing Elizabeth I in Shakespeare in Love), or more likely, another loss. Hey Jude, don't make it bad.
BEST Supporting Actor - (Wahlberg, Hounsou, Murphy, Haley, Arkin)
Who Should Win: Mark Wahlberg - The Departed
The two Supporting categories are in my mind the two most competitive categories with the most worthy nominees, and as such, this was a very hard call to make. I think that Djimon Honsou was good, and Arkin and Murphy both gave tasty scene-stealing performances, but I thought Haley and Wahlberg were sensational. As a shady pedophile in Little Children (a less popular pick this awards season, but, as my previous blog post notes, it was one of my absolute favorite films of the year), Haley is at once terrifying and pitiful. But I must give the edge to Wahlberg's fiery cop Dignam, who stole scene after scene with his fierce energy and convincing performance as the film's only character we could really trust. Wahlberg wins by a hair.
Who Will Win: Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Oscar voters love a nice career resurgence and as James "Thunder" Early, Murphy delivers his best dramatic performance ever after a string of lackluster comedies (although I haven't seen the upcoming movie Norbert, in which Murphy plays every character for like the tenth time). Murphy gives a varied performance, with as many funny moments as poignant ones, but I find I simply like Wahlberg more. However, I think that both men are deserving and seeing as how Murphy is the early favorite among critics and a Golden Globe winner, I think he's the clear pick for the win.
Who Could Win: Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
I think Haley's role is too seedy for Oscar voters to appreciate and not enough people have seen his film anyways. More importantly, the Academy Awards have set a precedent for rewarding actors who give superb performances in roles that are out of the actor's usual comfort zone. Arkin's vivacious, loving and hysterical grandpa is exactly the kind of once-in-a-career turn that could net Arkin his very first Oscar. He hasn't been nominated in nearly thirty years, but as they say, better late than never.
BEST Supporting Actress - (Barraza, Kikuchi, Hudson, Breslin, Blanchett)
Who Should Win: Rinko Kikuchi - Babel
Once again, this one was a big debate for me, as I absolutely loved both Barraza and Kikuchi; in my mind, they were the two gems in a whole cast of great actors in Babel. I would be thrilled if either of these women win, but I think Kikuchi is the more deserving because her portrayal of a deaf-mute girl is so haunting and so wounding for a part with which most viewers have no basis for commiseration. Kikuchi makes you feel for her so deeply and so completely in a way that none of the other nominees do. She's been getting awards nominations all over the place, but knocking off fan favorite Jennifer Hudson is going to be a tall order.
Who Will Win: Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Like her counterpart Eddie Murphy, Hudson has been getting huge buzz and has already won a handful of critics awards for her first ever role in a feature film. The same age as Kikuchi (25), Hudson does a good job as Effie White, but I don't think her acting comes anywhere close to that of her 4 fellow nominees (yes, I think Abigail Breslin was much better than Hudson). When the Academy votes for Hudson (and there's little doubt that they will), they will be rewarding her powerful pipes and primarily, the role of Effie. The role is so endearing and offers such wonderful opportunities for drama that its very difficult not to fall in love with Hudson. But if you look beyond the part's intrinsic qualities, you're left with a very unexperienced actress whose true performance pales in comparison to that of her contemporaries.
Who Could Win: Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Historically, The Academy has often recognized young female actresses (Keisha Castle-Hughes, Anna Paquin, Tatum O' Neal, et all) for extraordinary work, and Breslin's work as Olive Hoover is nothing short of that. She made you laugh, she made you cry, she made you wince, she made you sigh-- there's no denying the huge talent in that small girl. Can she win enough hearts to topple Hudson? Doubtful, but if anyone can do it, its her.
BEST Picture - (Little Miss Sunshine, Iwo Jima, Departed, Babel, The Queen)
Who Should Win: Little Miss Sunshine
This Little Movie That Could really has everything you could want from a feature film- superb ensemble and lead acting, fresh direction, a terrific script, and an array of deeply emotional moments ranging from the crushing to the inspiring to the raucously funny to the pathetic. No family road movie has ever been more than bottom of the barrel comedy (RV anyone?), so the fact Sunshine simply isn't that says a lot about the film's originality. We've seen the gritty thrillers, the classic biopics, the war films-- Little Miss Sunshine is its own thing completely. I would put this film on my top 20 films ever. I absolutely love it and I think it was the best film of the year.
Who Will Win: Letters From Iwo Jima
This is a very tough race to call. Other than The Queen, I really enjoyed all of this year's nominees. I thought Babel was so artful and just really fantastic, I thought The Departed was an enjoyable powerhouse of a film, and if you read my previous post, you know that I thought Clint Eastwood's Letters From Iwo Jima was a nearly flawless film. I think this movie has everything going for it: A powerful film with a profoundly original perspective on the horrors of war, a handful of early critics award wins for Best Picture or Best Foreign Film, Oscar nominations for Best Director and Best Screenplay, and most importantly, Clint Eastwood and Paul Haggis. I don't know if there's something in the water, but Hollywood loves them some Clint & Haggis. Everything these guys touch turns to Oscar gold and I don't think this year will be an exception. It should be a tight race, but as the film with the most lasting cinematic impact, Letters From Iwo Jima should take the prize.
Who Could Win: Babel
Golden Globe winner Babel could pull the repeat this February at the Kodak. It's got a visually arresting director, a twisty yet intelligible narrative, gut wrenching performances, and great pre-Oscar buzz. I like it better than Iwo Jima but I don't think it makes a profound enough statement (one small act can have enormous widespread consequences) to top it. However, should the Japanese prove too indecipherable or the draw of Babel's multi-layered complexity prove too strong, this international flick jut might come away with the statue.
What do you guys think? Agree/disagree? Let me know!
Who Will Win: Letters From Iwo Jima
This is a very tough race to call. Other than The Queen, I really enjoyed all of this year's nominees. I thought Babel was so artful and just really fantastic, I thought The Departed was an enjoyable powerhouse of a film, and if you read my previous post, you know that I thought Clint Eastwood's Letters From Iwo Jima was a nearly flawless film. I think this movie has everything going for it: A powerful film with a profoundly original perspective on the horrors of war, a handful of early critics award wins for Best Picture or Best Foreign Film, Oscar nominations for Best Director and Best Screenplay, and most importantly, Clint Eastwood and Paul Haggis. I don't know if there's something in the water, but Hollywood loves them some Clint & Haggis. Everything these guys touch turns to Oscar gold and I don't think this year will be an exception. It should be a tight race, but as the film with the most lasting cinematic impact, Letters From Iwo Jima should take the prize.
Who Could Win: Babel
Golden Globe winner Babel could pull the repeat this February at the Kodak. It's got a visually arresting director, a twisty yet intelligible narrative, gut wrenching performances, and great pre-Oscar buzz. I like it better than Iwo Jima but I don't think it makes a profound enough statement (one small act can have enormous widespread consequences) to top it. However, should the Japanese prove too indecipherable or the draw of Babel's multi-layered complexity prove too strong, this international flick jut might come away with the statue.
What do you guys think? Agree/disagree? Let me know!
2 comments:
Hey man,
Love the new blog..I disagree w/some of ur picks tho...
Scorsese will win no doubt, I loved the Departed, but I think he's gonna get that award just because the Academy feels like they owe him one after he came up short so many times. I think that either Steven Friars should get it for The Queen or the spanish dude with the 3 names should get it for Babel, or even the directors from 'Sunshine'. It used to be like the person that got the 'best director', was the director of the 'best pic', but recently it's been different. I personally think that if the director is the 'visionary' of the film, how could the film win and not the director...or vice versa..but watever.
Forest was great in 'Last King', but I think Ryan Gosling deserves it for Half Nelson, he'll never get it because it was such a small movie, and they weren't able to really publicize it like the others. Mirren will get 'best actress', but I really thought that Meryl Streep gave the best performance. She's good in everything she does...Hudson will win for supporting, I liked Blanchett tho, for 'Notes on a Scandal' but that's also the last movie I saw. Eddie will get it, unless he fucks up, and gets arrested the week before. I agree with you on Whalberg, Arkin was good too though. Best picture: I can't really see them giving it to 'Iwa Jima', although they love Clint. I think 'Sunshine' should get it, but it's all politics, so it'll probably come down to the last week of voting, and which films get the most commercial spots. Best movie of the year, according to me:
'Thank You for Smoking'
Anyway, I wrote like 5 times as much as I thought I would, but whatever...It's a pretty cool blog you got goin here.
I'll ttyl,keep in touch,dude.
Freddy
(fred tv)
Time for some 20/20 hindsight, Mr. Media Maven. I didn't read your picks until just now, so all of this analysis is post-Oscars viewing. First of all, Letters From Iwo Jima, while a perfectly legitimate choice considering the wide-open state of this years race, seemed to me to be the least likely candidate to win the award. The Departed, while I did not think it would win, was definitely (at least in my opinion) the most widely accessible movie of the bunch. After all, who can't resist Leo and Jack and Matt and Mark (who, incidentally, I thought should've won Best Supporting Actor), along with guns, violence, mystery, and intrigue, with a little sex peppered in here and there? While it may not have been the most artisticaly impressive movie out there, its sheer star power, acting prowess, plotline, and overall popularity (not to mention the sweet soundtrack!), were what carried this flick to victory, and would've placed it higher on my list than Iwo Jima. As for Little Miss Sunshine, I still have not yet seen it, so I accept any criticism for complementing a movie I haven't seen, but I actually thought this one would win. It was a cult favortie, haven't heard a single bad thing about it, and it's been a while since a movie of this ilk won the top prize. After Jack Black and Will Farrel's song about the disrespect comedians get at the Oscars, I thought it would be only fitting for a comedy to win Best Picture, something that hasn't happened in a long time. Babel had a great cast, and a topical storyline, making it a good possibility. And The Queen had Helen Mirren, who, even if it was an imitation-biopic, simply ran away with her Actress Oscar. That was the surest-thing, and also the most deserved award out there last night. While I appreciate what you say about the fine line between acting and imitation, Forest won for an imitation too, and it really isn't a coincidence that many of the past winners have been portraying real people. After all, isn't the role of an actor to portray reality as closely as possible? And isn't that most likely to be accomplished when the character portrayed is/was a real person? I'll sign off with the thought that if an acting career is judged by Oscars, then Peter O'Toole ought to be an exception from that rule. I was simply transfixed by his performance in Lawrence of Arabia (which was also a real person!), and the fact that he has been nominated 9 (?) times, ought to put him in the ranks of the best actors of all time, far more impressive than, say, Tom Hanks or Russell Crowe, who already have multiple Oscars to their name.
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